Donald Trump said that the United States "owns Gaza". He fully supports Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Donald Trump moved the Embassy from Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem while shutting down the consulate there. He nominated David Friedman, an extremist, to be ambassador to Israel. David Friedman didn't recognize that the settlements are illegal, nor did he support a two state solution. Donald Trump enacted two different Muslim travel bans and is an Islamophobe. Undoubtedly the activists who care so much about Gaza and the Palestinian civilians would have been better served and would have held a much better and stronger position had they supported Vice President Kamala Harris and had she won the presidential election. This outburst by Donald Trump is simply another manifestation of the fact that the uncommitted people made a serious mistake in judgment in supporting Donald Trump.
It is often asserted that Vice President Harris lost the presidential election because she didn't publicly break with President Biden on Israel or support an arms embargo against Israel. The only argument put forth to support this claim is that the uncommitted vote was greater than the margin of victory for Donald Trump in Michigan. However, simply because the uncommitted vote in Michigan was greater than the margin of victory for Donald Trump doesn't support in any way the claim that fewer votes would have been lost if she had broken with President Biden and supported an arms embargo against Israel. The question is would there have been more votes lost if she had broken publicly with President Biden and supported an arms embargo than the number of uncommitted votes. I believe the answer to that question is yes, there would have been more votes lost if she had broken with President Biden publicly and supported an arms embargo.
I suspect that most of the uncommitted voters would have viewed it entirely as an act of political survival and not one of conscience. The timing would have been suspicious, and the uncommitted voters would still be upset at her for the loss of so many Palestinian civilians. How many of those uncommitted votes would she have gained if she suddenly broke publicly with President Biden and supported an arms embargo? I suspect not many. Moreover, they would not have accepted anything less than an arms embargo on Israel. An arms embargo on Israel, our long term ally of 70 plus years and the only democracy in the region, would not have been received well by most voters. Most voters support Israel even though they are unhappy with mass Palestinian civilian casualties. This would have been perceived as a radical anti-Israel move. It is important to remember that our support of Israel does not begin or end with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Bibi Netanyahu is a terrible person. Almost everybody understands this. We were allies with Israel long before Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu took office and we will be allies with Israel long after he is dead and buried. Israel remains the only pluralistic democracy in the region that supports diversity and the United States. Many democrats stand with Israel. Vice President Kamala Harris would have been crushed by contrast or attack ads that were much more effective in portraying her as an enemy of Israel than what they ran this last cycle.
The swing states that decided the electoral college are to the right of where the country as a whole is. Vice President Kamala Harris would have lost many votes in these states had she supported an arms embargo against Israel and broke publicly with President Biden.
If she had broken publicly with President Biden, then how could he have trusted her as vice president? The press would have pushed her to condemn President Biden's policy with Israel since she broke with him. They would have followed this up by asking when she began to hold different views on Israel. This would have led to many follow up questions. Many people who strongly support President Biden would have been given a pause and some might not have voted for her because this act would have been seen as a betrayal in their eyes.
Finally, some suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris should have allowed speakers from uncommitted to speak at the convention. If they didn't get to listen and edit the speech beforehand, then there would have been a message in front of tens of millions of viewers that the campaign would not have vetted. They care far more about the Gaza conflict than the election of Vice President Kamala Harris to president. They would not have accepted letting the campaign vet the speech beforehand. Furthermore, because their allegiance is to the ideology and not to the candidate, then the campaign could have no confidence that the speaker would follow the written speech. The speaker likely would have chanted "Killer Kamala" and "Genocide Joe". This would have been devastating to the campaign. It would have been one of the worst mistakes of a campaign of a major party nominee for president in the last five decades.
I don't believe that there was a military solution to the situation in Gaza. I believe that Israel's acts have created more enemies. I strongly dislike Bibi Netanyahu. So, my views on the Gaza conflict are to the left of most Americans. So, this conclusion that publicly breaking with President Biden and supporting an arms embargo against Israel would have hurt her worse electorally than what she actually did is based solely on the polls, the fact that the swing states that decided the presidential election are to the right of the country as a whole, and many years of closely watching our American politics. It is not grounded in ideology and the fact that I am to the left of most American voters only confirms this. I am perfectly happy to abandon this evaluation of where the politics are if I see data that decisively refutes it. The fact that there were more uncommitted votes in Michigan than the margin of victory for Donald Trump in Michigan is not evidence that if she had broken publicly with President Biden and supported an arms embargo against Israel would have led to a win of Michigan and the rest of the swing states.
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