Simon Rosenberg, the founder of Hopium Chronicles, notified many of us on BluSky that Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen and so has consumer confidence while inflation is rising. The Guardian says, "Donald Trump's popularity has fallen somewhat as an early rush of executive orders- including renaming the Gulf of Mexico and attacking birthright citizenship are fairly unpopular with Americans, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found. The Republican president has cracked down on immigration and attempted to radically gut the government, with respondents to the three-day poll- which closed on Sunday - expressing increasing disapproval." He is now in negative territory already. Last time Donald Trump's approval rating started at 49% after he began his term but fell to 34% following the January 6 insurrection.
The Hill tells us, "Just less than 60% of respondents also voiced their dissatisfaction with the president's efforts to end diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) hiring practices within federal offices across the nation. His order to close federal DEI offices was opposed by 51%, while 44% were in favor of the decision, the poll found. "
Gallup notes, "Trump's inaugural approval rating is historically low again. Americans divided over whether Trump's pace in addressing major U.S. is about right or too fast. WASHINGTON, D.C.-- at 47% (before it dropped), President Donald Trump's initial job approval rating for his second term is similar to the inaugural 45% reading during his first term, again placing him below all other elected presidents dating back to 1953. Trump remains the only elected president with sub-50% initial approval ratings, and his latest disapproval rating (48%) is three percentage points higher than in 2017, marking a new high for inaugural ratings. Trump averaged 41% approval in his first term and is the only president not to receive a job rating of 50% or higher at any point in his presidency. He left office in January 2021 with the lowest rating of his presidency, 34% after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Trump's Approval Rating Remains Politically Polarized As was the case during his first term, Trump's current job rating is sharply polarized, with 91% of Republicans approving, compared with just 6% of Democrats and 46% of independents. This 85-point gap between Republicans and Democrats is similar to the average 81-point gap throughout his first term. It is also close to Biden's 87-point gap at the beginning of his term in 2021. At the start of Trump's first term, partisans' approval ratings were separated by 76 points (90% of Republicans vs 14% of Democrats) -- whereas prior to that, the gaps in partisans' initial approval ratings of new presidents ranged from 24 to 56 points. "
From Simon Rosenberg's Hopium Chronicles we read, "The economy added only 143,000 jobs last month. Here is what we know about the economy right now - GDP and job growth have slowed; inflation and prices are rising; egg prices are soaring;" He also wrote, "Consumer sentiment fell for the second straight month, dropping about 5% to reach its lowest reading since July 2024. The decrease was pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January along with consumers across age and wealth groups. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year. Year -ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise (one percentage point or more) in year-ahead inflation expectations. The current reading is now well above the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.3%this month. "
In summary, Trump's approval ratings are falling, job growth is falling, consumer confidence is falling, and inflation is increasing. During the initial honeymoon period, all other presidents enjoyed majority job approval. Donald Trump is the lone exception, not in his first term and not now in his second term.
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