There are a lot of lefty websites that claim after the election that not saying she would impose an arms embargo is why Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election. 6 in 10 democrats say Israel holds a lot of responsibility for the elevation of the war. So, 4 in 10 don't. That doesn't square with the thesis that if Vice President Harris said that she would impose an arms embargo on Israel, then she would have won the election.
Now, after the election and with Donald Trump in office taking a wrecking ball to everything, it's easy to say that you would have been much more likely to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris if she said that she would support an arms embargo against Israel. Democrats who care greatly about the issue are going to say that they were more likely to vote for Vice President Harris if she said that she supported an arms embargo. Those polls were Democrats and left leaning voters wanting to send a message whether they did vote for her anyway or they didn't vote.
If they did vote for her despite their difference on this issue, then she didn't lose their vote. So, more likely to vote for her doesn't make sense to say about a group that voted for her. Nor is it plausible that many voters voted for Donald Trump because of Gaza because almost every voter who cares about the issue knew Trump would not be better on the issue, was likely to be worse on the issue, and had many other reasons not to vote for him. Few people who care about the Palestinian civilians believe that Trump's policy on Gaza is better than Vice President Harris' policy would have been. If a voter voted for Trump, Gaza was unlikely to be the reason why. If they did, in fact, vote for VP Harris, then she didn't lose their vote. If they didn't vote, they were unlikely to do so period. There were many other issues that ranked higher as priorities for younger voters. If other issues more important to them didn't motivate them to vote, Gaza would not either.
The annual Harvard Youth Poll, run by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard's Kennedy School, surveys Americans between the ages of 18- and 29-years-old about the issues that matter most to them. This year's poll found that young people are much closer in their concerns to the broader electorate than media reports may suggest, with inflation, health care and housing topping their list, followed by gun violence.
The survey identified 16 current issues facing the U.S., asking respondents which of two randomly paired issues most concerned them. Inflation came out on top, with 64 percent of respondents rating it as more important than whatever issue it was matched against. The conflict in the Middle East ranked near the bottom of young Americans' concerns at 15th, with 34 percent of respondents choosing it over whatever randomly selected issue it was matched against.
Polls consistently showed inflation and prices and the economy were more important to voters than Gaza. For Gallup below, Gaza was 15th as a priority.
Gallup says the economy was the most important issue for voters in the 2024 presidential election
Economy Most Important Issue to 2024 Presidential Vote
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The economy ranks as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters say will influence their choice for president. It is the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, say the candidates’ positions on it are an “extremely important” influence on their vote. Another 38% of voters rate the economy as “very important,” which means the issue could be a significant factor to nine in 10 voters.
Again and again, Gaza was a low priority for voters, 15th in the Harvard Harris poll.
Poll: Gaza war ranks low on priority list for average American voter
It came in 15th on the list at 6% while antisemitism reached 28th with 2%, according to a recent Harvard University/Harris survey.
The New York Times said that Gaza was not at the root of President Biden's struggles with young voters.
Gaza Isn’t Root of Biden’s Struggles With Young Voters, Polls Show
Young voters are far more likely than other Americans to support Palestinians. But few cite the conflict as a top source of discontent with the president.
WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump tapped into deep anxieties about an economy that seemed unable despite its recent growth to meet the needs of the middle class, according to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide.
Worries about everyday expenses helped Trump return to the White House
He also carried more than half of voters who were “very concerned” about the cost of food, the cost of housing, and their own health care costs.
Voters who were focused on the economy ended up breaking hard for Trump. Those who said inflation was the most important factor for their vote were almost twice as likely to support Trump over Harris, and about 6 in 10 voters who said the economy and jobs were the most important issue facing the country were in his camp.
Younger voters support Vice President Kamala Harris decisively.
The survey finds Harris leading Donald Trump by 28 points among likely voters under 30 (60%-32%), while revealing that peer influence could be the key factor in youth turnout — 79% plan to vote when they believe their friends will, compared to just 35% when they think their peers won't participate.
Subgroups, for example, looking specifically at younger voters, don't give us reliable data.
- As a national poll is broken down into smaller and smaller subgroups, numbers from those groups are increasingly less reliable.
But their findings for young voters were widely divergent, as the chart here shows. In the Times/Sienna poll, Harris led Trump by just one point, 47% to 46%, among voters under 30. In the Pew Poll, Harris overwhelmed Trump among the under 30s by 29 points—63% to 34%. This pattern of wide divergence was not confined to these two surveys, but it was particularly striking given the similarity of their overall numbers.
Young people show up at the voting booth at lower rates than older voters. 51% of voters 18 to 24 year olds, 60% of 25 to 34 year olds, 65% of voters 35 to 44 year olds, 69% of 45 to 54 years olds, 73% of 55 to 64 year olds, 76% of 65 to 74 year olds, and 72% of those older than 75 years of age vote. There's a large difference in the participation rates of voters depending upon their age. Yet, younger voters, those least likely to vote, are the people that the surveys on these websites rely most upon. Our world in data gave us the above participation rate of registered voters based upon age.
Wikipedia gives us the same story.
Young people have the lowest turnout, though as the individual ages, turnout increases to a peak at the age of 50 and then falls again.[5] Ever since 18-year-olds were given the right to vote in 1971 through the 26th Amendment to the Constitution,[6] youth have been under represented at the polls as of 2003.
Therefore, for all of the above reasons, the claim that Gaza is the reason why Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election doesn't stand up to scrutiny.
Hyperlink text links to the sources, but for those for whom the hyperlink doesn't appear, here are the links to sources for this data.
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